Risk Runoff Forecast Tool: Estimating Ability to Reduce Nutrient and Sediment, and Assessing Likelihood of Adoption

A retrospective analysis of existing edge-of-field data (both surface runoff and subsurface-tile runoff), evaluating how timing of nutrient applications (both manure and fertilizer) affect the magnitude of nutrient losses in runoff. Specifically, the data will be evaluated to determine the degree to which nutrient losses are elevated in runoff events preceded by nutrient applications made 1, 2, 3, (and so on up to 10) days beforehand compared to “baseline” runoff where nutrient applications were made more than 10 days prior. The goal is to quantify the potential nutrient reductions realized if producers had refrained from applying nutrients shortly (i.e., 24 hrs and 72 hrs) before EOF runoff periods. Note that the evaluation would be independent from the River Runoff Forecast model, whereby the model would be assumed to be perfect and that farmer and nutrient-applicator would always be adherent to model predictions.

GLRI Funding
FY2019: $200,000