Keeping score: The groundhog vs. the temperature record, 2021

Punxsutawney Phil sees 6 more weeks of winter. Will it happen?
This curious groundhog isn't Punxsutawney Phil, but he (or she) sure is cute.

This curious groundhog isn't Punxsutawney Phil, but he (or she) sure is cute. (Image credit: iStock)

In Gobbler's Knob, Pennsylvania, at the crack of dawn this morning, the nation's most famous groundhog Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow — meaning six more weeks of winter, according to longstanding folklore.

How accurate was Phil's 2020 'forecast'?

Last year, Phil "predicted" a shorter winter and early spring when official observers declared he did not see his shadow.

But in fact, the contiguous United States saw above-average temperatures for both February and March 2020, according to scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information: 

  • The average contiguous U.S. temperature during February was 36.2°F, 2.3°F above the 20th-century average. This ranked among the warmest one-third of the 126-year period of record. 
  • For March, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 46.1°F, 4.6°F above the 20th-century average. It was the 10th-warmest March in the 126-year period of record.

Find out about how different parts of the country fared last year.

According to the famed groundhog Punxatawney Phil, the U.S. is likely to see 6 more weeks of winter, according to popular folklore. Phil's observers declared that he did, in fact, see his shadow early this morning, February 2, 2021. This infographic shows his history of seasonal "predictions" (seeing his shadow or not) from 2011 through 2020. As for this year, we'll have to wait and see if Phil's predictions come true!
According to longstanding folklore, famed groundhog Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Feburary 2, 2021, which means the U.S. is likely to see 6 more weeks of winter this year. This updated 2021 infographic shows the groundhog's history of seasonal "predictions" (seeing his shadow or not) from 2011 through 2020. As for this year, we'll have to wait and see if Phil's prediction rings true. (NOAA NCEI)
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What does the long-term scorecard show?

As Phil surely knows, accurate seasonal forecasting is hard work.

Happy Groundhog Day to all!

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