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July 4th weekend weather forecast: Summertime heat for much of U.S.

Likely to be relatively tranquil, with warmer-than-normal temps along Northern Tier, scattered showers and humidity for South
July 2, 2020
Independence Day fireworks at Agate Pass, between Bainbridge Island and the Olympic Peninsula, in Washington state.

The good news is: This July Fourth holiday weekend won’t be a record breaker. NOAA forecasters are predicting typical summer weather in the U.S. — hot and scattered showers depending on where you will be.

Where the heat is likely

Much-above-normal temperatures are likely in eastern Montana eastward to the Great Lakes and in the South where hot and humid conditions are favored. Most of the West will have slightly-above-normal temperatures, except for the Pacific Northwest coast, which will likely be below normal. The Desert Southwest will be hot — likely to hit as high as 110 in Phoenix — but average in temperature for this time of year.

Where the rain is likely

Scattered thunderstorms are most likely along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana east across northern Florida with excessive rain in the Dakotas and parts of Minnesota. Isolated thunderstorms are predicted at various times throughout the weekend along the East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast and in parts of the Midwest. Below-average precipitation is predicted across the U.S. over the weekend.

Where it should be dry 

Dry conditions are expected in the West along the coast inland to the Great Basin and in parts of the Midwest and Texas.

Dust from the Sahara Desert will join us for the holiday, though the effect won’t be as widespread as it was last week. To recap: Since June 25, the Saharan Air Layer — a mass of very dry, dusty air that forms over the Sahara Desert and travels across the tropical Atlantic Ocean — has been detected in the skies across the Southeast, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. The latest dust plume will deliver hazy skies and brilliant sunsets along the coasts from Texas to Louisiana. Track the Saharan Air Layer on weather.gov.

Oppressive heat and humidity coming soon ...

For the week of July 6, forecasters are predicting much of the north Central and interior Northeast U.S. could be in a heatwave. Extreme heat and humidity could last for several days with isolated thunderstorms. 

Before you go

 NOAA wishes everyone a safe and relaxing Independence Day!